As Somaliland gears up for its presidential and party elections on November 13, the political environment is fraught with tension, high stakes, and significant expectations. The upcoming election pits the long-standing ruling party, Kulmiye, against the rising opposition force, Waddani. While the political contest has captured the imagination of voters across Somaliland, the outcome remains highly unpredictable, hinging on how each party navigates its strengths and overcomes its weaknesses in the critical weeks leading up to election day.
Kulmiye, the ruling party, carries the weight of incumbency, which in many cases offers both advantages and substantial burdens. The party has been in power for several years and has managed to maintain a significant grip on the political landscape, largely because of its control over state resources. In Somaliland, as in many nascent democracies, the ability to leverage government resources during elections can make a considerable difference. This gives Kulmiye a distinct edge in terms of organizing, mobilizing voters, and controlling the narrative through state media channels.
Historically, Kulmiye has positioned itself as the custodian of Somaliland’s independence and sovereignty. The party has deep ties to the struggle for liberation from the brutal military dictatorship of General Mohamed Siyad Barre, a narrative that resonates with a significant portion of the electorate, particularly older voters who lived through that tumultuous period. The party’s association with figures like former president Ahmed Mohamed Mohamoud “Silanyo,” who was a key figure in Somaliland’s struggle for independence, still lends it a certain prestige and legitimacy.
However, Kulmiye’s incumbency also exposes it to intense scrutiny and criticism, particularly over its performance in governance. During its time in power, the party has been accused of failing to deliver on critical issues such as economic development, security, and border protection. Somaliland has faced numerous challenges under Kulmiye’s leadership, from spiraling inflation (with the Somaliland Shilling to the US Dollar standing today to an unprecedented, staggering SlShs 1080 to the US Dollar), increasing insecurity, particularly in the eastern regions of Sool and Sanaag, where militias and extremists have taken advantage of the government’s weak control. The cost of living has surged, and public dissatisfaction has grown over the inability of the government to bring inflation and foreign exchange rates under control. In a country where economic stability is closely linked to political legitimacy, Kulmiye’s inability to address these issues effectively may cost it dearly at the ballot box.
Further complicating matters for Kulmiye is its association with nepotism and clan-based politics. Somaliland’s political system, though democratic in theory, remains heavily influenced by clan allegiances, which often dictate voter behavior. While Kulmiye initially enjoyed broad support across various clans, its governance has increasingly been seen as favoring certain clans over others. This perception has alienated parts of its base, particularly among younger voters who are less tied to the old clan-based political structures. The party’s handling of government appointments and employment opportunities has been criticized for being skewed toward certain clans, leaving many feeling excluded from the benefits of state resources.
Moreover, internal divisions within Kulmiye have begun to surface. President Muse Bihi Abdi, who took over the reins of the party and the presidency in 2017, has faced resistance from within his own ranks. Some of his closest allies appear more focused on consolidating personal power than on supporting his leadership or advancing the party’s agenda. This internal discord has weakened Kulmiye’s ability to present a united front heading into the election. The perception that the president is surrounded by individuals who are undermining his leadership rather than bolstering it has created an atmosphere of mistrust within the party’s core.
Despite these challenges, Kulmiye still has several opportunities to turn the tide in its favor. One of its key strategies will likely involve mending fences with influential traditional leaders and business elites who have felt alienated by the current administration. These figures wield considerable power in Somaliland’s society and could play a decisive role in swaying votes. Kulmiye’s success may also hinge on its ability to achieve a significant diplomatic breakthrough, such as securing international recognition for Somaliland, a long-held aspiration for the unrecognized state. Though unlikely within the remaining days before the election, even partial diplomatic gains, particularly with countries like Ethiopia, could energize its voter base and enhance its standing as the party capable of achieving Somaliland’s long-term goals.
On the other side of the political spectrum is Waddani, the opposition party that has grown in strength and appeal over the past few years. Founded in 2011, Waddani represents a relatively new force in Somaliland politics. Unlike Kulmiye, it has never held power, which gives it the advantage of being untainted by the failures of governance. This outsider status has resonated with voters who are frustrated with the current state of the nation. Waddani’s core appeal lies in its promise of change and its positioning as the alternative to Kulmiye’s dominance.
Waddani has capitalized on Kulmiye’s governance failures, particularly in areas like economic management and security. The opposition party has been vocal in criticizing the government’s inability to control inflation, bring down the high cost of living, and protect Somaliland’s territorial integrity. Waddani has also focused on presenting itself as a party of inclusivity, drawing support from a diverse range of clans and communities. In recent months, the party has gained momentum, especially among younger voters and urban populations, who are increasingly disillusioned with the ruling party.
Waddani Coalition With KAAH
Waddani’s position has been considerably bolstered by its strategic coalition with the KAAH party – expected to elevate to a national party status in the upcoming elections, a move that has reshaped the political dynamics of the race. The alliance has allowed Waddani to extend its reach beyond its traditional strongholds, tapping into regions, clans, and communities that were previously less accessible to the party. By joining forces with KAAH, Waddani now enjoys a more extensive nationwide support base, giving it representation in both urban centers and rural areas where KAAH has deep-rooted influence. This coalition signifies a unification of political forces, making Waddani not just a viable contender, but a dominant force in the election landscape.
The partnership with KAAH brings together voters from diverse political and ethnic backgrounds, including constituencies that were previously loyal to other factions. It strengthens Waddani’s claims to being a party of inclusivity and reform, helping it dispel perceptions that it is aligned with only one dominant clan. In a country where political success often hinges on securing broad, multi-clan support, this coalition significantly boosts Waddani’s chances of securing a clear majority.
Moreover, the alliance has enhanced Waddani’s ability to mobilize voters at the grassroots level. With KAAH’s established networks in previously untapped regions, Waddani now has the infrastructure to reach a wider audience. This new partnership positions Waddani as not just a challenger but as a genuine nationwide movement, drawing support from across Somaliland’s diverse political and social spectrum. It reflects the party’s growing momentum, signaling that it is capable of breaking through the traditional barriers that have historically defined Somaliland’s elections.
This coalition marks a critical shift in the political balance and reinforces Waddani’s image as a party of change. It brings into sharp focus the reality that Waddani, backed by a now broader and more unified electoral base, is not only competing with Kulmiye on equal footing but is increasingly seen as the most inclusive and wide-reaching political force in Somaliland today.
Shortfalls
However, Waddani is not without its own set of challenges. While the party has succeeded in broadening its appeal, it remains closely associated with a dominant clan, which limits its ability to present itself as a truly national party. This association with a single clan could be a significant obstacle, particularly in rural areas where clan loyalty remains a strong determinant of voting behavior. The party’s leadership has also struggled to control some of its more divisive elements, particularly in the rhetoric of some of its supporters, who have alienated key segments of the population, including the military. This has raised concerns about Waddani’s ability to govern effectively and maintain the unity and stability that Somaliland has worked hard to achieve over the past three decades.
Furthermore, Waddani’s decision to bring in former Kulmiye members as part of its reformist platform has raised eyebrows. While this move was intended to signal that the party is capable of attracting experienced leaders, it has also led to accusations that Waddani is simply recycling old political elites rather than offering a genuinely new direction. This has created skepticism among some voters who question whether Waddani truly represents a break from the past or if it is simply repackaging old ideas under a different banner.
Despite these concerns, Waddani has a significant opportunity to capitalize on the growing dissatisfaction with Kulmiye’s governance. The party’s best chance lies in presenting a clear, credible program for governance that addresses the economic and security challenges facing Somaliland. If Waddani can articulate a vision for the future that builds on Somaliland’s past achievements while offering tangible solutions to the country’s current problems, it stands a strong chance of securing victory.
The final outcome of the election will likely depend on how well each party can navigate the complex dynamics of Somaliland’s political landscape in the coming weeks. For Kulmiye, the path to victory lies in its ability to repair internal divisions, regain the trust of key power brokers, and deliver on key promises, such as addressing inflation and insecurity. The party’s historical legacy and control of state resources give it a solid foundation, but without addressing the governance failures of the past few years, it risks losing the support of an increasingly frustrated electorate.
For Waddani, the challenge is to maintain its momentum while broadening its appeal beyond its core base. The party must demonstrate that it is capable of governing effectively and that its promises of change are more than just rhetoric. Waddani’s ability to present a credible, inclusive vision for Somaliland’s future will be critical in determining whether it can convert its growing support into electoral victory.
Worth Considering
As Somaliland approaches election day, one thing is clear: the country is at a crossroads. Voters face a critical choice between continuity and change, and the outcome of this election will shape the future of Somaliland for years to come. Whether Kulmiye retains power or Waddani emerges as the victor, the challenges facing the next government will be immense, and the path forward will require strong leadership, inclusive governance, and a clear vision for the future.
The presence of international election observers could play a crucial role in ensuring the credibility of the election process. Their assessment of the fairness and transparency of the elections could impact both domestic and international perceptions of the results. A positive evaluation from respected international observers might lend legitimacy to the winning party, while concerns raised could cast doubt on the outcome and potentially lead to post-election tensions.
Having said so, there are several additional factors to consider that if any of the two frontrunners adeptly exploit can change the outcome of the elections.
Diaspora Influence
Somaliland has a significant diaspora population often plays an important role in politics through remittances and political activism. Their influence could sway voter opinions, especially through social media and financial support. The diaspora’s engagement in political discussions and their ability to influence family members back home might impact voting patterns in difficult to predict but potentially significant ways.
Women’s Participation
The role of women in Somaliland’s politics has been growing, albeit slowly. Their participation as voters and candidates could be a deciding factor in some regions and potentially shift traditional voting patterns. If either party can effectively mobilize female voters or present compelling female candidates, it might gain an advantage, particularly in areas where women’s issues are paramount.
Youth Bulge
Somaliland has a very young population, with a significant portion of voters being first-time participants in the electoral process. Their priorities and concerns may differ from those of older generations, potentially leading to unexpected voting patterns. Issues such as job creation, education, and technological advancement might resonate more strongly with this demographic, potentially favoring the party that best addresses these concerns.
Economic Factors
The global economic situation, including rising inflation and food prices, could have a significant impact on voter sentiment. The party that can convincingly address these immediate economic concerns may gain an edge. Voters might prioritize short-term economic relief over long-term political promises, potentially influencing their choice at the ballot box.
Regional Tensions
The ongoing disputes in the Sool and Sanaag regions, as well as relations with neighboring Somalia and other regional powers, could influence voters’ perceptions of which party is best equipped to handle these sensitive issues. The party that presents a clear and convincing strategy for managing these tensions while maintaining Somaliland’s sovereignty claims might appeal to security-conscious voters.
Who Is Likely To Win?
Based on the facts presented and the additional considerations which shape the prevailing environment, I would predict a very close election with a slight edge for the opposition party, Waddani. This prediction is based on several factors:
- Anti-incumbency sentiment appears strong, with widespread dissatisfaction regarding Kulmiye’s handling of economic issues and security. This could lead to a significant anti-incumbency vote benefiting Waddani.
- The growing youth population is likely to favor change over continuity, potentially benefiting Waddani. If the opposition can effectively mobilize this demographic, it could tip the scales in their favor.
- Waddani’s stronger appeal in urban areas could be crucial, as urban voters tend to be more politically active and influential. This urban base might provide the opposition with a solid foundation of support.
- In a situation where there’s significant discontent with the status quo, Waddani’s promise of change and new leadership could be more appealing to voters looking for a fresh approach to governance.
- The analysis suggests that Waddani has been gaining momentum in recent months, which could carry through to election day, potentially culminating in an election victory.
The prediction above can change course depending on new developments and how the two parties win or lose more grassroots supporters.
However, this prediction comes with several important caveats:
- Kulmiye’s control over state resources and media could still sway the election in their favor, particularly if they can effectively leverage these advantages in the final stretch of the campaign.
- The clan dynamics, which are difficult to predict accurately, could play a decisive role. Last-minute shifts in clan alliances or voting patterns could significantly impact the outcome.
- Unforeseen events such as last-minute diplomatic breakthroughs or security incidents could shift voter sentiment rapidly.
Given these factors, while I predict a Waddani victory, it’s likely to be by a narrow margin. The election could easily go either way, and the losing party’s acceptance of the results will be crucial for maintaining Somaliland’s stability and democratic credentials.
Regardless of the outcome, the close nature of the race suggests that the winning party will need to work hard to unite the country and address the concerns raised during the campaign to ensure effective governance post-election. The new government will face significant challenges in addressing economic issues, security concerns, and diplomatic relations, requiring a inclusive and pragmatic approach to governance.
By Ali Yusuf
alyusufu2022@outlook.com
