A coterie of Iran’s hard-line Shiite Muslim clerics and Revolutionary Guards commanders is usually vocal on the subject of the Iranian nuclear program, loudly proclaiming the country’s right to pursue its interests and angrily denouncing the United States.
But as the United States and Iran prepare to restart nuclear talks this week, the hard-liners have been keeping a low profile.
“They have been remarkably quiet,” said Nader Karimi Joni, a former member of the Revolutionary Guards and the Basij, a volunteer paramilitary group.
Their silence is a result of state policies intended by Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, to seriously try to find a solution through negotiations. Ayatollah Khamenei has largely supported the nuclear talks and the Iranian negotiators, whom he has called “good and caring people, who work for the country.”
The restraint by the hard-liners also reflects a general satisfaction, analysts say, with the direction of the talks and the successes Iran is enjoying, extending and deepening its influence in Iraq, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen.
As a result, state-condoned demonstrations against the talks have fizzled out, as have meetings among hard-line politicians and student groups who said they had been worried about a potential deal.
Billboards in Tehran once depicting United States negotiators as commandos and devils have been replaced by slogans supporting the international outreach of the government of President Hassan Rouhani, a moderate who won office promising to complete the nuclear deal and end crippling economic sanctions.
Two weeks ago, the Committee to Protect Iranian Interests, the main group opposing the talks, was again out on the streets, but this time protesting the government’s economic policies.
“We are having in-house debates over our strategies,” said the group’s spokesman, Alireza Mataji, refusing to explain why he and his supporters were no longer publicly opposing a deal.
Those debates are more likely a simple buckling under to orders from above, Mr. Joni said. “Those critical of a deal have been told to keep quiet, to prevent giving the other side the option to blame Iran,” said Mr. Joni, who is now a journalist.
Iran’s hard-liners, who have always pledged full allegiance to Ayatollah Khamenei, do not dare veer off the course for nuclear talks set out by him — even if they involve the archenemy United States.
In a speech on Saturday to commemorate the first day of the Iranian New Year, Ayatollah Khamenei underlined that his country’s establishment was in favor of talks. Addressing a crowd of thousands, he rejected President Obama’s remarks that some in Iran were against resolving the nuclear issue through diplomacy.
“This is a lie,” he said. “No one in Iran is against the resolution of the nuclear issue through negotiations. What the Iranian nation does not want to agree with is the impositions and bullying of the Americans.”
While supporting the talks, the supreme leader has had to walk a fine line, balancing the hopes and expectations of those wanting to end Iran’s isolation with those deeply invested in its anti-Western ideology. So while encouraging the negotiations, Ayatollah Khamenei has also accused the United States of being untrustworthy, those who are familiar with his views say, so he can blame Washington if the talks fail.
Until that moment, however, internal dissent will not be tolerated, as it will only undermine the country’s negotiating position, Iranian analysts and hard-liners say.
“We will have no letters or other nonsense that we are witnessing in the United States,” Hamid Reza Taraghi, a political strategist with close ties to Ayatollah Khamenei, said, referring to a letter 47 Republican senators sent to Iran’s leaders warning them that any deal on their nuclear program could be reversed by Mr. Obama’s successor. “Iran speaks with one voice.”
Mr. Taraghi said the muzzle would remain in place as long as the negotiations seemed to be progressing. “Fact of the matter is that we are seeing positive changes in the U.S. position in the nuclear talks,” he said. “We are steadfast and the U.S. is compromising. We are not complaining.”
The last time Iran’s hard-line faction erupted was in February, after a well-documented stroll by Iran’s foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, and Secretary of State John Kerry along the banks of Lake Geneva.
This “show of intimacy with the enemy of humanity” was a disgrace for the nation, said Mohammad Reza Naghdi, head commander of the Basij. Members of Parliament quickly joined in, as did several influential Friday Prayer leaders, who are often critical of the government.
But after Mr. Zarif explained to Ayatollah Khamenei that refusing the afternoon stroll would have been a diplomatic faux pas, the leader agreed and all criticism ended, said Mohammad Sadegh Kharazi, a former Iranian ambassador with close ties to the ayatollah and Mr. Zarif.
“The leader is a logical and reasonable person,” Mr. Kharazi said. “He greatly trusts Mr. Zarif and knows he will do his utmost to get Iran’s rights in the talks.”
There is one remaining bastion of resistance, however. Iran’s oldest newspaper, Kayhan, whose editor in chief, Hossein Shariatmadari, was appointed by Ayatollah Khamenei, continues to criticize a potential deal.
Its editorials cast doubts over leaked details, like a 10-year suspension of enrichment (a nonstarter, the paper says); the speech before Congress by Israel’s prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu (a “fake struggle” between two allies); and the “real” intentions of the Obama administration to engage in talks (“their only goal is regime change”).
But even this conservative redoubt, wary of crossing Ayatollah Khamenei, holds its fire on the nuclear talks.
“In the end, the supreme leader will be the one who benefits from a deal,” said Mr. Taraghi, the analyst. “If it is a good deal, and he says so, all factions will follow him. If not, all will follow him, too.”
The nuclear negotiations aside, Mr. Taraghi said, the hard-liners have many other things to be pleased about, like the string of Shiite successes in the Middle East (Iraq, Syria, Yemen).
“Deal or no deal, we are at new peaks of our power,” he said.
(Source: The New York Times)
